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Daily Trend and Trade Review


February 2, 2010


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes enjoyed another modest recovery bounce today, this time on mildly higher volume

Officially, the Dow Industrials rose 1.1% on NYSE volume of 5.4 billion shares, while the NASDAQ advanced 0.9% on 2.5 billion. The leadership profile remains weak, though remains positive for now, with 157 stocks making new highs versus 57 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain negative, confirming the now BEARISH stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator. We have new trades below to exit all longs and to begin accumulating short positions (or inverse ETFs) using a dollar cost averaging approach.

The AK Trading Indicator has signaled an official change in trend from up to down, and we are acting accordingly to adjust our trades in-line with the new trend. Risk remains high that the stock indexes will rally further to test their 50 day moving averages (blue lines in the charts below,) so we continue to hold a lot of cash that we expect to put to work as any continuation of the rally unfolds.

Only those investors who understand and accept the additional volatility trading short and inverse ETFs involved - especially on leverage - should consider entering these new trades, with more conservative investors best served following the text advisory we offer to 401K investors. Feel free to email us via the contact us page at AlphaKing.com with any questions you may have on portfolio positioning, or any other topic.

401K investors should move ALL monies to a money market fund, and stay there till the trend turns bullish again.

The Index portfolio will be ¼ invested in the inverse ETF QID tomorrow, which will give us a 50% exposure to the short side. Expect more trades over the next few days.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: Sell QQQQ and buy QID with 1/4 of money allocated to this strategy

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: Exit all long positions and sell short FXI and IAI

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: Exit all long positions and sell short COF , UFS , TOL and JNS

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: Exit all long positions and buy 2 positions of the following leveraged ETFs: MZZ , TWM and QID


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2010* (2.3%) (2.3%)
Annual 1973-2009* 13.6% 18.8%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2010* (2.2%) (2.2%)
Annual 2000-2009* 13.6% 20.3%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2010* 3.3% 3.3%
Annual 1999-2009* 5.8% 22.3%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2010** 0.2% N/A
Annual 2001-2009** 16.0% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long QQQQ 12/31/2009 46.25 43.65 (5.62%)

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long EWS 12/24/2009 11.35 10.92 (3.79%)
Long IYM 12/24/2009 60.63 57.46 (5.23%)
Cash x 2

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long EVVV 12/24/2009 13.77 15.20 10.38%
Long RYAAY 12/30/2009 26.80 27.53 2.72%
Long FIG 12/29/2009 4.64 4.76 2.59%
Long CELG 12/24/2009 56.61 57.75 2.01%
Cash x 4

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long CQP 12/24/2009 11.80 14.27 20.93%
Long KFN 12/29/2009 5.30 6.27 18.30%
Long FRZ 12/30/2009 4.44 5.25 18.24%
Long THC 12/30/2009 5.26 5.59 6.27%
Long NM 12/24/2009 6.18 6.21 0.49%
Long KLIC 12/30/2009 5.35 5.21 (2.62%)
Long SMOD 12/24/2009 6.70 6.52 (2.69%)
Long GFF 12/24/2009 12.34 11.97 (3.00%)
Long INSU 12/30/2009 22.10 21.30 (3.62%)
Long EV 12/30/2009 30.62 29.51 (3.63%)
Long UMC 12/29/2009 3.76 3.57 (5.05%)
Long JBLU 12/24/2009 5.73 5.07 (11.52%)
Cash x 13

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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