AlphaKing.com
Weekly Trend and Trade Review	November 27, 2009
Trader Talk The short term momentum oscillators have turned negative, non-confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading indicator for the NASDAQ (while the AK Trading Indicator for the Russell 2000 remains negative.) The accumulation/distribution profile remains negative, with zero higher volume accumulation days this week. The leadership profile continues to weaken - though remains positive for now - with 98 new 52 week highs, versus 85 new 52 week lows. The 4% rule remains positive, confirmed with bullish Federal Reserve policy. The VXO volatility indicator closed the week at 24.1, showing an up-tick in fear after touching the 20 complacency level earlier in the week. The break below last week’s low signals the Elliott Wave 3 crash run has begun. Traditional seasonal trends have us looking for a very difficult month ahead as a prelude to an end of year rally. The Presidential cycle suggests a grim 2010. The Benner-Fibonacci cycle is fast approaching the end of the bullish period, with a crashing bear going forward expected into 2011. The AlphaKing combination cycle sees a harsh correction - potential crash - in November. Summary: The technical ducks continue to suggest a major rally peak is being formed, with the negative close on Friday completely retracing the gains from rally pushes from earlier in the week, which makes this week two of such Doji Death spike rally failures. The fundamental ducks also are coming home to roost as the second financial shoe dropped in the form of Dubai World asking for a “Time-Out” on repayment of its $90 billion debt. The first financial shoe was the collapse of the housing bubble that drove banks way beyond the brink of collapse. The second financial shoe is the expected collapse of commercial real estate, of which Dubai World is the poster child of rampant excess in that sector as reality dawns that no amount of debt can even make buildings grow to the sky, nor ski-slopes in one of the hottest places in the world. The third financial shoe - yet to drop - is the collapse of consumer debt as unemployment around the world spikes as financial woes reach the worker in the form of pink slips. The banking system cannot survive any one of these collapsing bubbles, let alone all three arriving near simultaneously. We will resume the bull/bear debate once we hit the 200 day moving averages as we get to see how the pattern of the expected plunge unfolds, and what the internal leadership looks like at that time. Till then, Buckle up, Lads, and Watch Out Below! As the Dubai World debt debacle is likely to be the tip of a very large melting financial ski-slope and we know in which direction the crap will flow. 401K investors should be invested in money market funds. Have a great weekend! Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist, AlphaKing.com Portfolio Update Archive Trades: Index Portfolio: No new trades GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades Performance: Portfolio Long Only Long/Short Index Portfolio 2009* 36.8% 20.4% Annual 1973-2008* 13.1% 19.4% GrQ/4 Portfolio 2009* 19.8% 19.5% Annual 2000-2008* 13.0% 21.1% GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2009* 0.8% 26.3% Annual 1999-2008* 6.5% 22.8% GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2009** 30.3% N/A Annual 2001-2008** 15.6% N/A GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA * Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since. ** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade. Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com Current Positions: Index Portfolio* Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 29.89 3.89% GrQ/4 Portfolio* Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Short XHB 11/12/2009 15.28 14.44 5.50% Short EWJ 11/12/2009 9.54 9.37 1.78% Short IBB 11/12/2009 78.71 78.35 0.46% Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 21.25 (3.01%) GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio* Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Short ILMN 11/12/2009 33.26 28.62 13.95% Short YHOO 11/12/2009 16.08 15.00 6.72% Short AMAT 11/12/2009 13.02 12.29 5.61% Short CHA 11/13/2009 45.57 43.94 3.58% Short SHLD 11/12/2009 70.72 71.94 (1.73%) Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 21.25 (3.01%) Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 21.25 (7.04%) Short SA 11/13/2009 23.11 25.50 (10.34%) GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio** Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 29.89 3.89% Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 29.89 3.89% Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 29.89 3.89% Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 29.89 3.89% Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 25.12 2.91% Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 25.12 2.91% Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 25.12 2.91% Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 25.12 2.91% Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 21.25 (3.01%) Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 21.25 (3.01%) Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 21.25 (7.04%) Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 21.25 (7.04%) Cash x 13