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Daily Trend and Trade Review


November 30, 2009


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes traded back and forth the unchanged level today, with volume remaining missing in action.

Officially, the Dow industrials rose 0.3% on NYSE volume of 4.9 billion, while the NASDAQ advanced 0.3% on 2.0 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 147 stocks making new highs versus 96 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain negative, non-confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator for the NASDAQ (while the Russell 2000 AK Trading Indicator remains negative.) We have no new trades at this time.

Today’s sideways churn has the look of end of month window dressing, and risk of a serious downside plunge remains extreme. All the leadership groups remain in trouble - the semis, small and mid cap stocks, the financials and transports - while the larger indexes are fighting to hang onto critically important support.

If the stock indexes hold and rally off current levels, on the backs of the Dubai debacle, then the bulls would have the green light for an end of year rally push, and we would jump onto that trade in a hurry if such a bullish Houdini act lands for real, as it is the reaction to news that has future trend implications rather than what anyone thinks the news should mean. We will follow the leaders wherever they go, and for now they continue to point south.

401K investors should be invested in a money market fund.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2009* 36.8% 19.5%
Annual 1973-2008* 13.1% 19.4%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2009* 19.8% 19.2%
Annual 2000-2008* 13.0% 21.1%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2009* 0.8% 26.3%
Annual 1999-2008* 6.5% 22.8%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2009** 30.1% N/A
Annual 2001-2008** 15.6% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 29.65 3.06%

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short XHB 11/12/2009 15.28 14.31 6.35%
Short IBB 11/12/2009 78.71 78.41 0.38%
Short EWJ 11/12/2009 9.54 9.56 (0.21%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 21.22 (3.15%)

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short ILMN 11/12/2009 33.26 28.92 13.05%
Short YHOO 11/12/2009 16.08 14.97 6.90%
Short AMAT 11/12/2009 13.02 12.31 5.45%
Short CHA 11/13/2009 45.57 44.45 2.46%
Short SHLD 11/12/2009 70.72 70.95 (0.33%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 21.22 (3.15%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 21.22 (7.17%)
Short SA 11/13/2009 23.11 25.21 (9.09%)

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 29.65 3.06%
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 29.65 3.06%
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 29.65 3.06%
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 29.65 3.06%
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 25.02 2.50%
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 25.02 2.50%
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 25.02 2.50%
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 25.02 2.50%
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 21.22 (3.15%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 21.22 (3.15%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 21.22 (7.17%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 21.22 (7.17%)
Cash x 13

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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