Sellers jumped on board positive early action today, with a mixed close run on decreasing volume.
Officially, the Dow industrials fell 0.2% on NYSE volume of 4.6 billion, while the NASDAQ advanced 0.4% on 2.1 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 467 stocks making new highs versus 86 making new lows.
The short term momentum oscillators remain negative, non-confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator for the NASDAQ (while the Russell 2000 AK Trading Indicator remains negative.) We have no new trades at this time.
Today’s rally pop and reversal looks like completed corrective waves, and if so the red ink blood-letting should start early tomorrow. The past three weeks has seen essentially the same pattern: a rally early in the week that completely evaporated by the Friday close. The splintered technical action of late suggests the bears have a perfect set-up to pull-off such a reversal here, and this time around it should deal the killer blow.
If the bulls do survive, and are able to push the Russell 2000 above blue line support of the 50 day moving average, then the door would open for real on an end of year blow-off run. How the bulls can survive here, with now some of the generals joining the troops in refusing to go up the hill, is beyond me, but we‘ll follow the markets wherever they go. We should know pretty soon whether the bulls or the bears will be unwrapping presents with a smile or a frown on their face. Buckle up, Lads, for the fun is about to start.
401K investors should be invested in a money market fund.
Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.