AlphaKing.com
Weekly Trend and Trade Review	December 4, 2009
Trader Talk The short term momentum oscillators remain negative, non-confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading indicator for the NASDAQ (while the AK Trading Indicator for the Russell 2000 remains negative.) The accumulation/distribution profile remains negative, with zero higher volume accumulation days this week. The leadership profile remains positive, with 521 new 52 week highs, versus 95 new 52 week lows. The 4% rule remains positive, confirmed with bullish Federal Reserve policy. The VXO volatility indicator closed the week at 20.5, showing a return of utter complacency. We continue to await the breakdown that would signal the Elliott Wave 3 bear market crash run has begun. Traditional seasonal trends have us looking for a year end rally. The Presidential cycle suggests a grim 2010. The Benner-Fibonacci cycle is fast approaching the end of the bullish period, with a crashing bear going forward expected into 2011. The AlphaKing combination cycle sees a rally into early March. Summary: Reaction to any news is more important than the news itself, especially when it comes to forecasting future stock market trends. A couple of weeks ago the bears had a great shot to end the rally on the backs of the pending Dubai World default, yet the financial markets held together, opening the door to a bull push to the top of the recent trading range. And today the bulls had a great short to pull-off a timely breakout on the backs of a much better than expected jobs report, and sellers were all over the advance, leaving the indexes with bearish looking candle patterns all over the place. Worse, was the collapse of gold as the US dollar rallied in the face of improving economic fundamentals in the US, suggesting a major market turn has landed. Some of the most important generals seem to get the message that the investment world has reached an important turning point, as Amazon joined Apple and Google in closing down hard despite today’s rally attempt. If the lemming trade - buy gold, stocks, and China, while selling and shorting the US dollar - is indeed over, then stocks and all things China should join the fast unfolding crash in gold. The market has been brutal to both the bulls and bears of late - with every sell-off leading to a rally, and every rally to a sell-off - though recent events suggest that is all about to change, as a clear victor is about to get declared. Odds favor the bears, once again, though we will follow the stock market wherever it goes, and that includes long a year-end advance if that is destined to be our destiny. The reaction early next week to today’s reaction and reversal should be very telling. 401K investors should be invested in money market funds. Have a great weekend! Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist, AlphaKing.com Portfolio Update Archive Trades: Index Portfolio: No new trades GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades Performance: Portfolio Long Only Long/Short Index Portfolio 2009* 36.8% 10.1% Annual 1973-2008* 13.1% 19.4% GrQ/4 Portfolio 2009* 19.8% 15.9% Annual 2000-2008* 13.0% 21.1% GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2009* 0.8% 22.5% Annual 1999-2008* 6.5% 22.8% GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2009** 26.7% N/A Annual 2001-2008** 15.6% N/A GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA * Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since. ** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade. Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com Current Positions: Index Portfolio* Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.33 (5.01%) GrQ/4 Portfolio* Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Short XHB 11/12/2009 15.28 14.69 3.86% Short IBB 11/12/2009 78.71 79.64 (1.18%) Short EWJ 11/12/2009 9.54 9.98 (4.61%) Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.67 (5.66%) GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio* Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Short ILMN 11/12/2009 33.26 28.32 14.85% Short YHOO 11/12/2009 16.08 15.19 5.53% Short CHA 11/13/2009 45.57 45.60 (0.07%) Short AMAT 11/12/2009 13.02 13.32 (2.30%) Short SHLD 11/12/2009 70.72 72.71 (2.81%) Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.67 (5.66%) Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.67 (9.58%) Short SA 11/13/2009 23.11 26.73 (15.66%) GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio** Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.75 (2.70%) Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.75 (2.70%) Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.75 (2.70%) Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.75 (2.70%) Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.33 (5.01%) Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.33 (5.01%) Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.33 (5.01%) Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.33 (5.01%) Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.67 (5.66%) Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.67 (5.66%) Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.67 (9.58%) Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.67 (9.58%) Cash x 13