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Daily Trend and Trade Review


December 7, 2009


Trader Talk

Sellers jumped on board positive early action once again today, with a mixed close run on decreasing volume.

Officially, the Dow industrials closed flat on NYSE volume of 4.8 billion, while the NASDAQ dropped 0.2% on 1.9 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 352 stocks making new highs versus 49 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain negative, non-confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator for the NASDAQ (while the Russell 2000 AK Trading Indicator remains negative.) We have no new trades at this time.

The market continues to show signs of distribution selling on each and every rally attempt of late - including today - though the bears have yet to deal the killer blow that forces a deeper correction. We remain at a pivotal moment in regards to the next hard trend move, as any continuation of the rally would result in a potential melt-up rally into year-end, while any failure of the stock indexes to hold moving average support shown in the charts below would open the door to a serious and fast correction.

Sideways action is either a base or a top, and we plan to follow the markets in whichever direction they decide to go in, with a decision in this trend/momentum dilemma expected very soon. We are happy with our short positions, though have our long picks ready to go in case we need them. Buckle up, lads, as the fun is about to start.

401K investors should be invested in a money market fund.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2009* 36.8% 10.7%
Annual 1973-2008* 13.1% 19.4%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2009* 19.8% 16.7%
Annual 2000-2008* 13.0% 21.1%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2009* 0.8% 23.0%
Annual 1999-2008* 6.5% 22.8%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2009** 26.8% N/A
Annual 2001-2008** 15.6% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.20 (5.46%)

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short XHB 11/12/2009 15.28 14.52 4.97%
Short IBB 11/12/2009 78.71 79.32 (0.78%)
Short EWJ 11/12/2009 9.54 9.92 (3.98%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.85 (4.84%)

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short ILMN 11/12/2009 33.26 28.34 14.79%
Short YHOO 11/12/2009 16.08 15.45 3.92%
Short CHA 11/13/2009 45.57 44.65 2.02%
Short AMAT 11/12/2009 13.02 13.25 (1.77%)
Short SHLD 11/12/2009 70.72 72.61 (2.67%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.85 (4.84%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.85 (8.79%)
Short SA 11/13/2009 23.11 26.69 (15.49%)

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.81 (2.46%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.81 (2.46%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.81 (2.46%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.81 (2.46%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.85 (4.84%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.85 (4.84%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.20 (5.46%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.20 (5.46%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.20 (5.46%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.20 (5.46%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.85 (8.79%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.85 (8.79%)
Cash x 13

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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