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Daily Trend and Trade Review


December 10, 2009


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes opened higher today, only for sellers to step forward once again to push the indexes back from their opening rally push highs, with sideways churn the remainder of the day delivering very modest gains going into the close run on decreasing volume.

Officially, the Dow industrials advanced 0.7% on NYSE volume of 4.6 billion shares, while the NASDAQ rose 0.3% on 1.9 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 327 stocks making new highs versus 68 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain negative, non-confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator for the NASDAQ (while the Russell 2000 AK Trading Indicator remains negative.) We have no new trades at this time.

The splintered market got even more splintered today, as the Russell 2000 small caps, semis, and financial stocks, all closed down on the day, while other major stock indexes and sectors landed modest closes in the green. Volume continues to contract on rally pushes, which continues to bolster the bear case.

An end of year rally could land despite all this blah technical action, though so far there is very little to suggest the bulls are about land such a significant breakout. When those technical facts change then we will change, till then we continue to call recent gyrations the stumbling actions of a market in trouble, with stumbling having a long history of landing before the fall.

401K investors should be invested in a money market fund.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2009* 36.8% 12.7%
Annual 1973-2008* 13.1% 19.4%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2009* 19.8% 16.9%
Annual 2000-2008* 13.0% 21.1%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2009* 0.8% 24.4%
Annual 1999-2008* 6.5% 22.8%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2009** 27.1% N/A
Annual 2001-2008** 15.6% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.97 (2.78%)

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short XHB 11/12/2009 15.28 14.32 6.28%
Short IBB 11/12/2009 78.71 78.87 (0.20%)
Short EWJ 11/12/2009 9.54 9.89 (3.67%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.48 (6.53%)

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short ILMN 11/12/2009 33.26 27.58 17.08%
Short CHA 11/13/2009 45.57 43.49 4.56%
Short YHOO 11/12/2009 16.08 15.49 3.67%
Short AMAT 11/12/2009 13.02 13.31 (2.23%)
Short SHLD 11/12/2009 70.72 73.35 (3.72%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.48 (6.53%)
Short SA 11/13/2009 23.11 24.67 (6.75%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.48 (10.41%)

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.84 (2.34%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.84 (2.34%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.84 (2.34%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 23.84 (2.34%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.97 (2.78%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.97 (2.78%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.97 (2.78%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 27.97 (2.78%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.48 (6.53%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.48 (6.53%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.48 (10.41%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.48 (10.41%)
Cash x 13

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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