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Daily Trend and Trade Review


December 14, 2009


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes opened higher today and then traded sideways the remainder of the day, with modest gains going into the close run on mildly higher volume.

Officially, the Dow industrials advanced 0.3% on NYSE volume of 5.0 billion shares, while the NASDAQ rose 1.0% on 1.9 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 508 stocks making new highs versus 70 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators are on the cusp of turning positive - though remain negative for now, currently non-confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator for the NASDAQ (while the Russell 2000 AK Trading Indicator remains negative.) We have no new trades at this time.

The stock indexes have moved into the make or break position. Any further strength going forward will trigger a buy signal in numerous technical indicators, including the currently bearish AK Trading indictor for the Russell 2000. Thus the bears have to step forward right here right now to prevent the year-end rally run the bulls have been pushing for.

We do believe a harsh reversal should land tomorrow, though we will follow the AK Trading Indicator for the Russell, and if it turns positive tomorrow then we will use a dollar cost averaging approach to ease out of our shorts positions and into a portfolio of long positions. Tomorrow should be an interesting day, which will lead smack into FED decision Wednesday, and thus this week should be quite volatile and potentially very telling as to what happens next in regards to the future trend. Till tomorrow…

401K investors should be invested in a money market fund.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2009* 36.8% 7.2%
Annual 1973-2008* 13.1% 19.4%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2009* 19.8% 15.0%
Annual 2000-2008* 13.0% 21.1%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2009* 0.8% 21.9%
Annual 1999-2008* 6.5% 22.8%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2009** 25.1% N/A
Annual 2001-2008** 15.6% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 26.62 (7.47%)

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short XHB 11/12/2009 15.28 14.73 3.60%
Short IBB 11/12/2009 78.71 80.09 (1.75%)
Short EWJ 11/12/2009 9.54 9.96 (4.40%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.24 (7.62%)

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short ILMN 11/12/2009 33.26 28.40 14.61%
Short CHA 11/13/2009 45.57 43.68 4.15%
Short YHOO 11/12/2009 16.08 15.81 1.68%
Short AMAT 11/12/2009 13.02 13.56 (4.15%)
Short SHLD 11/12/2009 70.72 75.99 (7.45%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.24 (7.62%)
Short SA 11/13/2009 23.11 25.25 (9.26%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.24 (11.46%)

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 22.81 (6.55%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 22.81 (6.55%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 22.81 (6.55%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 22.81 (6.55%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 26.62 (7.47%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 26.62 (7.47%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 26.62 (7.47%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 26.62 (7.47%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.24 (7.62%)
Long QID 10/26/2009 21.91 20.24 (7.62%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.24 (11.46%)
Long QID 09/30/2009 22.86 20.24 (11.46%)
Cash x 13

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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