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Daily Trend and Trade Review


December 23, 2009


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes traded back and forth the unchanged level today, with modest gains going into the close run on ever-decreasing volume.

Officially, the Dow Industrials closed flat on NYSE volume of 3.5 billion shares, while the NASDAQ advanced 0.8% on 1.6 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 673 stocks making new highs versus 81 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain positive, confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator for the NASDAQ. We have new trades below.

Nothing changed today, with overseas markets consolidating after suffering steep declines of late, while the US stock indexes completed a four rally sequence, with a reversal of such gains common after day four blow-off runs complete.

The Russell 2000 AK trading indicator has turned positive, and thus we are beginning to add some select long positions to our portfolios, though being very wary of the four day rally phenomena.

With that danger in mind, we will continue to hold onto our short positions as we expect a pullback to commence right here, even if the new buy signal for the Russell proves to be a great one. Tomorrow is a half day ahead of the holidays, and the low volume usually makes such days meaningless from a technical perspective, thus we will hold off from making any changes to our portfolios other than the new buys for tomorrow. We will reassess after the close on Monday, and become either aggressive long traders or more aggressive on the short side, as we get to see how next week starts. Risk remains extreme for both the bulls and the bears.

401K investors should be invested in a money market fund, though we may have a new trade early next week.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: We are buying EWS and IYM

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: We are buying CELG and EVVV

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: We are buying GFF , JBLU , NM , CQP and SMOD


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2009* 36.8% 0.0%
Annual 1973-2008* 13.1% 19.4%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2009* 19.8% 12.3%
Annual 2000-2008* 13.0% 21.1%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2009* 0.8% 21.0%
Annual 1999-2008* 6.5% 22.8%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2009** 21.8% N/A
Annual 2001-2008** 15.6% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 24.66 (14.29%)

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short XHB 11/12/2009 15.28 15.46 (1.18%)
Short EWJ 11/12/2009 9.54 9.86 (3.35%)
Cash x 2

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short CHA 11/13/2009 45.57 40.70 10.69%
Short ILMN 11/12/2009 33.26 29.71 10.67%
Short YHOO 11/12/2009 16.08 16.67 (3.67%)
Short SA 11/13/2009 23.11 24.00 (3.85%)
Cash x 4

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.46 (12.09%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.46 (12.09%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.46 (12.09%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.46 (12.09%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 24.66 (14.29%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 24.66 (14.29%)
Cash x 19

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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