The major stock indexes traded back and forth the unchanged level once again today, with very modest losses going into the close run on very low volume.
Officially, the Dow Industrials closed down 0.02% on NYSE volume of 2.8 billion shares, while the NASDAQ fell 0.1% on 1.1 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 412 stocks making new highs versus 59 making new lows.
The short term momentum oscillators remain positive, confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator for the NASDAQ. We have new trades below, including for the 401K investor.
While we are wary of buying at this juncture with risk of a reversal remaining extremely high, it is noted in technical analysis folklore that the best and most desired trades are some of the most difficult to enter, for their ability to keep on running after breakout and thus seem to offer less than optimal entry points.
While whipsaws and volatility are part of the trading experience, and some years can be expected to be better than others, we have total confidence in our new system over the long term, and that means taking trades when the system says to take trades, whether or not we think such trades are good, bad, or indifferent. We will continue to maintain a high cash position going forward until the extreme reversal risk diminishes, exactly has our rigorously tested system suggests is the optimal exposure for the current tricky conditions. The bulls best shot is to open 2010 with a continuation of the rally, which would really squeeze the bears into capitulation, along the lines of what happened to end the blow-off rally in early 2000. The bears best shot is to wait out the end of 2009 and hope traders prefer to take profits in early January rather than buy. The start to January should be very interesting, and potentially very volatile, and while stocks may see some ups and downs early next year we are very confident that we’ll be well into the green as 2010 closes.
401K investors should move ˝ of their portfolio into a stock index, or aggressive growth, mutual fund, with the other ˝ remaining in a money market fund.
Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.