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Daily Trend and Trade Review


December 29, 2009


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes traded back and forth the unchanged level once again today, with very modest losses going into the close run on very low volume.

Officially, the Dow Industrials closed down 0.02% on NYSE volume of 2.8 billion shares, while the NASDAQ fell 0.1% on 1.1 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 412 stocks making new highs versus 59 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain positive, confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator for the NASDAQ. We have new trades below, including for the 401K investor.

While we are wary of buying at this juncture with risk of a reversal remaining extremely high, it is noted in technical analysis folklore that the best and most desired trades are some of the most difficult to enter, for their ability to keep on running after breakout and thus seem to offer less than optimal entry points.

While whipsaws and volatility are part of the trading experience, and some years can be expected to be better than others, we have total confidence in our new system over the long term, and that means taking trades when the system says to take trades, whether or not we think such trades are good, bad, or indifferent. We will continue to maintain a high cash position going forward until the extreme reversal risk diminishes, exactly has our rigorously tested system suggests is the optimal exposure for the current tricky conditions. The bulls best shot is to open 2010 with a continuation of the rally, which would really squeeze the bears into capitulation, along the lines of what happened to end the blow-off rally in early 2000. The bears best shot is to wait out the end of 2009 and hope traders prefer to take profits in early January rather than buy. The start to January should be very interesting, and potentially very volatile, and while stocks may see some ups and downs early next year we are very confident that we’ll be well into the green as 2010 closes.

401K investors should move ˝ of their portfolio into a stock index, or aggressive growth, mutual fund, with the other ˝ remaining in a money market fund.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: We are buying to cover the EWJ short position

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: We are buying to cover the YHOO and SA short positions, and buying RYAAY

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: We selling TWM and buying FRZ , KLIC , INSU , EV and THC


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2009* 36.8% 0.0%
Annual 1973-2008* 13.1% 19.4%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2009* 20.2% 12.9%
Annual 2000-2008* 13.0% 21.1%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2009* 0.5% 20.0%
Annual 1999-2008* 6.5% 22.8%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2009** 21.5% N/A
Annual 2001-2008** 15.6% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 24.58 (14.56%)

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long EWS 12/24/2009 11.35 11.50 1.32%
Short XHB 11/12/2009 15.28 15.28 0%
Long IYM 12/24/2009 60.63 60.54 (0.15%)
Short EWJ 11/12/2009 9.54 9.92 (3.98%)

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short CHA 11/13/2009 45.57 41.80 8.27%
Short ILMN 11/12/2009 33.26 30.68 7.76%
Long FIG 12/29/2009 4.64 4.63 (0.22%)
Long CELG 12/24/2009 56.61 56.12 (0.87%)
Short SA 11/13/2009 23.11 23.39 (1.21%)
Long EVVV 12/24/2009 13.77 13.59 (1.31%)
Short YHOO 11/12/2009 16.08 16.92 (5.22%)
Cash x 1

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long CQP 12/24/2009 11.80 12.60 6.78%
Long PLAB 12/29/2009 4.50 4.54 0.89%
Long GFF 12/24/2009 12.34 12.33 (0.08%)
Long UMC 12/29/2009 3.76 3.75 (0.27%)
Long NM 12/24/2009 6.18 6.16 (0.32%)
Long KFN 12/29/2009 5.30 5.27 (0.57%)
Long SMOD 12/24/2009 6.70 6.55 (2.24%)
Long JBLU 12/24/2009 5.73 5.53 (3.49%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.37 (12.45%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.37 (12.45%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.37 (12.45%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.37 (12.45%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 24.58 (14.56%)
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 24.58 (14.56%)
Cash x 11

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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