The major stock indexes traded back and forth the unchanged level once again today, with a mixed close run on decreasing volume.
Officially, the Dow Industrials rose 0.4% on NYSE volume of 4.8 billion shares, while the NASDAQ fell 0.2% on 2.1 billion. The leadership profile maintains its very positive tone, with 965 stocks making new highs versus 92 making new lows.
The short term momentum oscillators remain positive, confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator. We have no new trades at this time.
Individual stocks continue to act well even as the stock indexes meander in the middle of decision-time no-mans-land. The bears keep pushing for a top and yet keep failing to force any serious selling that would give them real hope of a victory. Every bear push that fails leaves them ever-closer to a royal melt-up capitulation, though such bullish nirvana remains held very much in check by the realization that an ultimate peak will surely come, and when it does the selling will be brutally swift.
Our 50% exposure to the uptrend should enable us to profit on any melt-up action, while keeping the volatility of the ultimate top and reversal tolerable. Testing shows that periods of such conservative stock market exposure can go on for a while, but every year also sees prolonged periods of ultra-aggressive investment in stocks, with risk versus the reward the difference between the two investment stances. Thus caution here, and go-for-it at a later date, when risk of profit greatly exceeds the risk of loss, which is not what we currently see. Patience is one of the greatest gifts in life, and critical here in the investment world as the bulls and bears do the chicken dance on the edge of a massive investment precipice.
401K investors should have ½ of their portfolio invested in a stock index, or aggressive growth, mutual fund, with the other ½ remaining in a money market fund.
The Index portfolio is ½ invested in QQQQ with the other ½ remaining in cash.
Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.