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Daily Trend and Trade Review


January 11, 2010


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes traded back and forth the unchanged level once again today, with a mixed close run on decreasing volume.

Officially, the Dow Industrials rose 0.4% on NYSE volume of 4.8 billion shares, while the NASDAQ fell 0.2% on 2.1 billion. The leadership profile maintains its very positive tone, with 965 stocks making new highs versus 92 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain positive, confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator. We have no new trades at this time.

Individual stocks continue to act well even as the stock indexes meander in the middle of decision-time no-mans-land. The bears keep pushing for a top and yet keep failing to force any serious selling that would give them real hope of a victory. Every bear push that fails leaves them ever-closer to a royal melt-up capitulation, though such bullish nirvana remains held very much in check by the realization that an ultimate peak will surely come, and when it does the selling will be brutally swift.

Our 50% exposure to the uptrend should enable us to profit on any melt-up action, while keeping the volatility of the ultimate top and reversal tolerable. Testing shows that periods of such conservative stock market exposure can go on for a while, but every year also sees prolonged periods of ultra-aggressive investment in stocks, with risk versus the reward the difference between the two investment stances. Thus caution here, and go-for-it at a later date, when risk of profit greatly exceeds the risk of loss, which is not what we currently see. Patience is one of the greatest gifts in life, and critical here in the investment world as the bulls and bears do the chicken dance on the edge of a massive investment precipice.

401K investors should have ½ of their portfolio invested in a stock index, or aggressive growth, mutual fund, with the other ½ remaining in a money market fund.

The Index portfolio is ½ invested in QQQQ with the other ½ remaining in cash.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2010* 0.7% 0.7%
Annual 1973-2009* 13.6% 18.8%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2010* 2.5% 2.5%
Annual 2000-2009* 13.6% 20.3%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2010* 2.8% 2.8%
Annual 1999-2009* 5.8% 22.3%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2010** 3.7% N/A
Annual 2001-2009** 16.0% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long QQQQ 12/31/2009 46.25 46.36 0.24%

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long IYM 12/24/2009 60.63 63.95 5.48%
Long EWS 12/24/2009 11.35 11.84 4.32%
Cash x 2

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long FIG 12/29/2009 4.64 5.28 13.79%
Long RYAAY 12/30/2009 26.80 27.16 1.34%
Long CELG 12/24/2009 56.61 57.27 1.17%
Long EVVV 12/24/2009 13.77 13.41 (2.61%)
Cash x 4

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long CQP 12/24/2009 11.80 15.08 27.80%
Long KFN 12/29/2009 5.30 6.68 26.04%
Long THC 12/30/2009 5.26 6.14 16.73%
Long NM 12/24/2009 6.18 7.06 14.24%
Long UMC 12/29/2009 3.76 4.18 11.17%
Long KLIC 12/30/2009 5.35 5.87 9.72%
Long SMOD 12/24/2009 6.70 7.04 5.07%
Long EV 12/30/2009 30.62 31.93 4.28%
Long INSU 12/30/2009 22.10 22.46 1.63%
Long GFF 12/24/2009 12.34 12.52 1.46%
Long PLAB 12/29/2009 4.50 4.44 (1.33%)
Long JBLU 12/24/2009 5.73 5.61 (2.09%)
Long FRZ 12/30/2009 4.44 4.04 (9.01%)
Cash x 12

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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