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Daily Trend and Trade Review


January 14, 2010


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes traded modestly higher today despite weaker than expected economic data, with volume a tad lower than yesterday.

Officially, the Dow Industrials rose 0.3% on NYSE volume of 4.5 billion shares, while the NASDAQ advanced 0.4% on 2.3 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 554 stocks making new highs versus 53 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain positive, confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator. We have no new trades at this time.

The close tomorrow should be very interesting, and it is no guarantee that the expected positive open - after positive news from Intel after hours - translates into a positive close. The stock market remains on the cusp of a massive decision, and the bears will surely be poised to try to prevent the positive reaction to the Intel news from turning into anything more significant.

So far no index has followed the recent breakout of the Dow Industrials, and the bears are dead in the water if they allow tomorrow’s opening pop run to new highs for other indexes, which is a very real possibility as the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, S&P500, and Russell 2000 small caps all sit very close to prior highs. So the close tomorrow is set up to be the Missouri “show-me” move that we mentioned yesterday. Tomorrow is also options expiration, which should add plenty of liquidity juice to whatever transpires from the bull-bear war at current levels.

A bull win and the melt-up run is very much on the investment table as we approach the end of January. While a bear win would leave the recent Dow Industrial lone breakout a total failure, opening the door to a really bad wave of distribution selling. Tomorrow should be a nail-biter for both sides, though there can only be one winner going into the 3pm-4pm decision-time period.

401K investors should have ˝ of their portfolio invested in a stock index, or aggressive growth, mutual fund, with the other ˝ remaining in a money market fund.

The Index portfolio is ˝ invested in QQQQ with the other ˝ remaining in cash.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2010* 0.7% 0.7%
Annual 1973-2009* 13.6% 18.8%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2010* 1.8% 1.8%
Annual 2000-2009* 13.6% 20.3%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2010* 3.0% 3.0%
Annual 1999-2009* 5.8% 22.3%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2010** 3.9% N/A
Annual 2001-2009** 16.0% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long QQQQ 12/31/2009 46.25 46.39 0.30%

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long EWS 12/24/2009 11.35 11.75 3.52%
Long IYM 12/24/2009 60.63 62.70 3.41%
Cash x 2

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long FIG 12/29/2009 4.64 5.12 10.34%
Long CELG 12/24/2009 56.61 58.13 2.69%
Long RYAAY 12/30/2009 26.80 27.30 1.87%
Long EVVV 12/24/2009 13.77 13.84 0.51%
Cash x 4

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long CQP 12/24/2009 11.80 14.66 24.24%
Long KFN 12/29/2009 5.30 6.45 21.70%
Long THC 12/30/2009 5.26 6.29 19.58%
Long NM 12/24/2009 6.18 7.22 16.83%
Long UMC 12/29/2009 3.76 4.15 10.37%
Long SMOD 12/24/2009 6.70 7.18 7.16%
Long KLIC 12/30/2009 5.35 5.65 5.61%
Long EV 12/30/2009 30.62 32.24 5.29%
Long INSU 12/30/2009 22.10 22.78 3.08%
Long FRZ 12/30/2009 4.44 4.47 0.68%
Long JBLU 12/24/2009 5.73 5.74 0.17%
Long GFF 12/24/2009 12.34 12.26 (0.65%)
Long PLAB 12/29/2009 4.50 4.44 (1.33%)
Cash x 12

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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