The major stock indexes traded modestly higher today despite weaker than expected economic data, with volume a tad lower than yesterday.
Officially, the Dow Industrials rose 0.3% on NYSE volume of 4.5 billion shares, while the NASDAQ advanced 0.4% on 2.3 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 554 stocks making new highs versus 53 making new lows.
The short term momentum oscillators remain positive, confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator. We have no new trades at this time.
The close tomorrow should be very interesting, and it is no guarantee that the expected positive open - after positive news from Intel after hours - translates into a positive close. The stock market remains on the cusp of a massive decision, and the bears will surely be poised to try to prevent the positive reaction to the Intel news from turning into anything more significant.
So far no index has followed the recent breakout of the Dow Industrials, and the bears are dead in the water if they allow tomorrow’s opening pop run to new highs for other indexes, which is a very real possibility as the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, S&P500, and Russell 2000 small caps all sit very close to prior highs. So the close tomorrow is set up to be the Missouri “show-me” move that we mentioned yesterday. Tomorrow is also options expiration, which should add plenty of liquidity juice to whatever transpires from the bull-bear war at current levels.
A bull win and the melt-up run is very much on the investment table as we approach the end of January. While a bear win would leave the recent Dow Industrial lone breakout a total failure, opening the door to a really bad wave of distribution selling. Tomorrow should be a nail-biter for both sides, though there can only be one winner going into the 3pm-4pm decision-time period.
401K investors should have ˝ of their portfolio invested in a stock index, or aggressive growth, mutual fund, with the other ˝ remaining in a money market fund.
The Index portfolio is ˝ invested in QQQQ with the other ˝ remaining in cash.
Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.