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Daily Trend and Trade Review


January 25, 2010


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes trading back and forth the unchanged level today - with a mildly positive bias - with modest gains going into the close run on low volume.

Officially, the Dow Industrials advanced 0.2% on NYSE volume of 5.2 billion shares, while the NASDAQ rose 0.3% on 2.2 billion. The leadership profile remains weak, though positive for now, with 145 stocks making new highs versus 51 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain negative, non-confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator. We have no new trades at this time.

The stock market recent weakness is likely to get worse before it has a chance of getting better, though there is not enough technical damage yet to confirm a change in trend from bull to bear has landed for real. So expect further losses, followed by some decent snap-back runs into the green as this week unfolds, before we get a more lasting decision going into the weekend.

While our trend indicators are weakening, and a sell signal coming out of all this choppy action would not surprise us one bit, we do not expect such a reversal sell signal to land before Thursday or Friday at the earliest. Thus this week is about sitting tight and letting the bulls and bears give us a “show me” decision going into the weekend. History says a four week plunge to test the 200 day moving averages is the most likely outcome going forward, though the next few days should be much to do about nothing as red and green volatility swings back and forth to keep the sellers of ulcer medications in business. Stay awake - though yawn a lot - and get ready for some trades later in the week, is our advice.

Please note that the stock pricing updates was not complete at time of publishing this update, thus the performance data shown is from Friday. Sorry for the inconvenience, but accurate data should be up and running by tomorrow.

401K investors should have ˝ of their portfolio invested in a stock index, or aggressive growth, mutual fund, with the other ˝ remaining in a money market fund.

The Index portfolio is ˝ invested in QQQQ with the other ˝ remaining in cash.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2010* (1.8%) (1.8%)
Annual 1973-2009* 13.6% 18.8%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2010* (1.7%) (1.7%)
Annual 2000-2009* 13.6% 20.3%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2010* 2.9% 2.9%
Annual 1999-2009* 5.8% 22.3%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2010** 0.7% N/A
Annual 2001-2009** 16.0% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long QQQQ 12/31/2009 46.25 44.16 (4.52%)

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long EWS 12/24/2009 11.35 11.06 (2.56%)
Long IYM 12/24/2009 60.63 57.94 (4.44%)
Cash x 2

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long EVVV 12/24/2009 13.77 14.72 6.90%
Long FIG 12/29/2009 4.64 4.88 5.17%
Long CELG 12/24/2009 56.61 58.57 3.46%
Long RYAAY 12/30/2009 26.80 26.46 (1.27%)
Cash x 4

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long CQP 12/24/2009 11.80 15.20 28.81%
Long KFN 12/29/2009 5.30 6.21 17.17%
Long SMOD 12/24/2009 6.70 6.95 3.73%
Long NM 12/24/2009 6.18 6.38 3.24%
Long UMC 12/29/2009 3.76 3.86 2.66%
Long EV 12/30/2009 30.62 30.82 0.65%
Long GFF 12/24/2009 12.34 12.34 0%
Long FRZ 12/30/2009 4.44 4.43 (0.23%)
Long THC 12/30/2009 5.26 5.19 (1.33%)
Long JBLU 12/24/2009 5.73 5.58 (2.62%)
Long INSU 12/30/2009 22.10 21.50 (2.71%)
Long KLIC 12/30/2009 5.35 5.00 (6.54%)
Cash x 13

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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